But if it mushrooms beyond that, it could be a very bad thing. Well, what we shouldn't have done is have a massive stimulus when we're on an upswing, as they just did with the massive tax cut bill earlier this year. This was not the time to do that. The time to do a stimulus is when you're sinking and the economy needs it. I and many other economists were almost screaming for like five years after '09 that we needed a stimulus and we should do it in something productive like fixing our roads, our bridges, our ports, our airports. I think we're bound for something a lot worse than a recession.
We're going to continue what we began in But those programs did not solve the problems that created the crisis. They actually compounded the problems. The tradeoff was they were able to postpone some of the consequences of the problems to a later date. And that's where we're headed, to that later date. The reason that we had a crisis is that the Federal Reserve had kept interest rates too low for too long leading up to the financial crisis of ' The result of that was a misallocation of resources, an over-investment in housing, not enough savings, not enough capital investment, too large trade deficits.
We just inflated this bubble. We should've allowed Fay and Freddie to go bankrupt completely, not just go under government control; they should've been completely eliminated from the marketplace. We should've returned to a free market in housing, meaning that people buy houses that they can afford, not based on a government guarantee where the government enables people to buy houses they can't afford. So a lot of changes for the good would've taken place, but for the stimulus and the bailouts and everything that we did to try and blow air back in the bubble. If you go back in time, I'm surprised at the length of time that we were able to buy.
I'm surprised we've made it this far. But that's not a good thing. The longer we delay, the bigger the problems become. And so, what we're going to go through economically is going to be far worse as far as being painful to endure for the people than it would've been had it happened five years ago or three years ago or whatever.
And the longer we succeed in delaying it, the worse it gets. Because it can't be delayed indefinitely. It can be delayed, but nobody can really say for how long. One thing that is sure is the longer we delay, the worse it's going to be. I think the attention is going to focus back to the US again. I think the U.
I think we're in worse shape than Japan, not that Europe and Japan are not in trouble, they are. But I just think we're in more trouble. As inflation really starts to overwhelm the world — right now, the central bankers are still acting as if we're around 2 percent, when I'm sure we're much more than that — but at some point all these official inflation measures are going to be reading 3 percent, 4 percent, 5 percent.
And the central banks around the world are going to have to raise interest rates. And that's when there's really a disaster, because we can't afford the higher interest rates. We can barely afford the higher interest rates we have now, and we're at 2 percent.
I mean, look what's happening with the housing market, look what's happening with the auto market. Despite all this hoopla about a booming U. And that's with interest rates still at ridiculously low levels. We're not even close to normal. There are a lot of bubbles. The bond market is a bubble.
The stock market, housing market. Ironically, the trigger could end up being our own actions. I mean, the trade war could end up doing it. One of the things that's been keeping the bubble going is China's willingness to supply us with consumer goods at a low cost and lend us the money to buy it. The massive trade deficits with China are one of the reasons that we've been able to kick the can down the road.
So to the extent that we actually forced the Chinese to do what they should've done a long time ago, we can accelerate the collapse, which in the long run I suppose is going to be good, although politically it could be a disaster. That's what I'm really worried about, because if we have this massive crash while Trump is president, he ain't going to be president in , and it's probably going to be a socialist, and he's probably going to have a socialist congress.
So we could do a lot of damage. The United States should be doing a lot of things differently, but we're not going to. What we should be doing is instead of waiting for the crisis to be pushed on us by factors beyond our control, we ought to take control of it ourselves, like a controlled burn instead of a forest fire. So we should be slashing government spending now; we should be allowing the Fed to allow interest rates to find a real level, which is much, much higher than they are now; and then we're going to have to deal with the bankruptcies.
We're going to have to deal with a decline in the stock market, the bond market. We're going to have to deal with a lot of defaults, [and] a lot of debtors are going to go broke. It's going to be a painful process even if we bring it on ourselves. But if we wait for the crisis to happen on its own because it's imposed on us by the world, it's just going to be worse. Did left-wing Hillary hate put Trump in the White House? When I wrote my book predicting the financial crisis , I also wrote that the government would react to that crisis by doing the wrong thing, that they would cut rates and print a lot of money.
And I thought that they were going to try and reflate the bubbles in housing and the stock market. I did not believe that they would succeed. I thought their attempt to reflate the bubble would fail, because I thought a dollar crisis would prevent it. But that never happened. A lot of things happened to keep the dollar going up. And so, instead of just attempting to reflate the bubbles, they actually succeeded. They actually were able to blow an even bigger bubble than the one that popped in ' Now the economy is more screwed up than ever before. So the correction is going to be much worse.
And this time, there's just no way that they can try to reflate the bubble. It's going to be impossible. If they take rates down to zero again and then launch QE4, that's it. Now, I do think that that's what they're going to do, so it's going to be a real mess. It's very ironic, hearing "We're going to punish China.
We're going to get China. The trade deficits are a huge problem. I've been warning about it for years, but they're really the consequence of the problem. The problem is that our economy is producing these trade deficits. The problem is that we're accumulating massive debt to our trading partners. But the reality is we can't pay our trading partners back, so they're the suckers. Because we're just going to default or inflate and give them worthless money.
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But when we give them worthless money, that means that our money is worthless too. If the dollar crashes and you have hyperinflation, the U. Ads are currently disabled. Please sign in with Facebook or Google below: If you have an older Salon account, please enter your username and password below: So what's going to kill ours? Sure, global regulators have papered over some of the cracks in the banking system, forcing banks to bolster capital reserve ratios and toughen rules and regulations on risk-taking.
But it seems more akin to re-arranging deckchairs on a sinking ship. The underlying dangers have not been tackled and, if anything, the risks have proliferated. How trade war and corporate debt could trigger a perfect storm. Right now, the world is probably less well equipped to tackle a new market pandemic. In , global interest rates were much higher, quantitative easing and mass monetisation were merely textbook theories, while fiscal pump-priming was anathema to most budget-conscious governments.
What made the difference was that there were enough multilateral-thinking policymakers willing to turn the tide.
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Preserving international order was the prime directive over national self-interest at the time. They could afford to turn on the super-stimulus and they did so in a very determined way. A decade on and the world seems to be running out of options. Global interest rates are close to rock bottom, quantitative easing has run out of steam and government priorities have returned to budget-cutting and austerity.
The good news is that global liquidity has been given a mighty push in the past 10 years, providing a decent impetus to global growth, but the big question is how long it will last. The risks to world recovery are legion, but if there is one glaring danger that stands out from the crowd, it is the capricious leadership of US President Donald Trump. On the one hand, he might have delivered a big boost to US growth prospects with tax cuts but, on the other, Trump has set America on a very dangerous collision course with China, Europe and many others over trade.
The trade war is the greatest single threat to global peace, stability and prosperity at the present time. Two simple ways to reform the global order before it breaks. The trouble is that there is very little we can do about it. The rise of political populism and the switch away from benevolent internationalism to narrow, national self-interest is growing by the day.
The next time the crisis hits, the supranational agencies will lack the punch to make a difference. And whether it is a trade war, debt crisis, global recession or financial market meltdown, the former stalwarts of concerted multilateral intervention are no longer on the scene. The architects of the bailout are long gone. That neighbor who was in control during many minor emergencies may be the one pounding on your door with whacked-out eyes demanding what you have because they did not prepare for anything. Someone in your own survival group may just blank out in a zombie-like stare.
Unexpected times bring out the best and worst in people — and you need to prepare for this possibility. You yourself could lose it.
Again, preparing for this will help should it occur. You always hope that disasters will bring out the best in your fellow human beings, but often this is not the case. This is one of the top priorities within the armed forces because disease and sickness can and do take down the toughest of soldiers.
People must realize that after a terrible disaster, it is not like someone going camping, comes back dirty, and taking a nice long shower or a hot bath After a SHTF event the water to the faucets, as well the hot water heater, may not work. Bathing on at least a semi-regular basis is necessary to avoid all sorts of bacteria from building up on the skin and causing a variety of concerning ailments that will then have to be treated. People should plan on how they will keep themselves clean — think sponge baths or using personal wipes as an option.
How to dispose of waste and proper sanitation. In third world countries and the pre-flush toilet era, one of the leading causes of illness and death was and still is improperly discarded waste. Even improperly burying human excrement can lead to disease. Portable toilets, toilet paper, and disinfectant bleach, for one should be one of the top items in any survival kit. Disposal of other trash is an issue that can bring hungry dangerous animals around drawn to the stench.
Burning of trash is one method; plastic trash bags and the means to find some place to dump them is another alternative. Learn to control pests and other vermin. This is a problem that led to about half of Europe dying several hundred years ago with the Black Death. Fleas and ticks carry some terrible diseases. Even people that stay inside their own homes will have to deal with this problem. People outside will have to contend with the fleas, ticks, flies, mosquitoes, mice, rats, and so on There are many repellents in nature that can help: Stocking up on insect and other commercial repellents is always an excellent idea.
It only takes one bite to make a person deathly sick. Understand radiation fallout and how to protect yourself. This is one of the least understood of the survival precautions taken.
There are hundreds of nuclear power plants that could fail after the world as we know it goes down the tube. There are still tens of thousands of nuclear weapons available for war should countries decide to use them. Fallout is something that you might not even see The purchase of a radiation detector that is protected against EMP is a wise idea. Understanding about radiation accumulation dosage rad and how to shield oneself from exposure is paramount.
Many places offer free classes on first aid because they want people in the community to be prepared. A good first aid book along with a first aid kit is something every household should have before, during, and after a disaster. Primitive conditions should be expected when anyone is helping someone after a catastrophe. A stockpile of antibiotics is always a good idea. Even acquiring the skill of making your own antibiotics can save lives as infection is something that will become an epidemic, especially with minor cuts and abrasions.
My family has gone as far as being trained to stitch up wounds. We decided as a family that we would learn this skill in case anyone we knew was in need. We have purchased the sterile suture kits and could stitch small to medium size wounds as good as any doctor at this point. This also requires having the right supplies and equipment. From my viewpoint, this is a skill set that is valuable in any circumstance — but particularly in SHTF events when medical personnel may not be available in a convenient time frame. Vitamin and mineral deficiencies are nothing to fool around with.
Just consider what scurvy, the lack of Vitamin C, can do to someone Many survivalists and "preppers" make the critical mistake of only being concerned about calories to keep them going. Each person needs different amounts and any survival food supply should take this need as important as the food itself.
Many survival foods have some of what your body needs, but sadly lack in others Vitamin and mineral supplements should be stocked with food if someone is unsure about what they are getting. Trace mineral drops are a liquid that can solve this problem, and are a good addition to any emergency supply. How to start and maintain a fire. This is for everyone. Having a fire and keeping it going when you need it has been the essence of survival for thousands of years.
Having a lighter, matches, and a starter is one thing; but actually keeping the fire going is another Making sure the fire does not cause damage to your home or shelter is something not everyone thinks about. Burning of toxic wood or other material is something to remember as well. While most everyone thinks that using a fire is rudimentary, there is much more to it.
As a matter of fact, a church group recently tested some of their members and gave them matches to start a file. Most of the people had trouble starting a basic fire even though they had matches.
This is a skill that you must acquire that allows you to consistently start a fire anywhere at any time. You should also learn to start a fire without matches. There are several books listed at the end of this report that can show you how this is done. Many people are into seed storing, and in many cases, growing your own food will feed the family. However, growing food has many drawbacks that people need to look at.
Water is an issue in dry areas as irrigation is very man- or animal-power intensive. One of the gravest things to contemplate is actually guarding your yield, as two-legged problems could be a bigger issue to your crops than some beetle infestation. Hungry people will see food growing and take it, 24 hours a day. No one can grow enough food to feed all those seeking food.
From a practical sense, it might be a better idea for some to go the hunter-gathering route. There are many good survival shows on television today that are very informative on surviving off the land. Last-minute items to secure from a grocery store. Hopefully you already have your long-term food storage and other preparations in place: This should allow you to concentrate on these other items while most other people are trying to secure what you already have.
Once a SHTF event occurs, you may want to quickly go to the grocery store to secure these last-minute items before the shelves are empty. Studies have shown these short-term storage items go first when a crisis happens. Most of these products have a shelf life of less than 18 months:. These are just some suggestions that people need to address now — before trying to survive the aftermath of a horrible event. People who prepare have to realize that when civilization stops functioning, so too does everything that most of us depend on.
There may never be a safety net there for us WHEN our stocked-up survival supplies run dry. Much of survival is having supplies — as well as backups for when food, water, and other necessities cannot be found.
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The other part is being ready for everything our new situation could throw our way. For this, we all need to learn survival skills. When someone thinks about their personal needs, an individual can probably add many more survival skills to the items we have talked about above. You want to become quite proficient in these skills before the SHTF so you and your family have a better chance of surviving. In most of these cases, while many have made some great preparations in some instances, they are woefully unprepared in other key circumstances In one case, there was a lady who was obviously very prepared with food, but wanted nothing to do with other important preparations such as protection.
Here she is on national television telling the world where she is and all about her food preparations. In my opinion, she clearly does not understand how many unwanted people are going to come for her food when a major crisis hits. Some of those people will probably not even think twice about killing her to obtain it. If you have not yet watched any of these shows, they can give you some ideas for your own preparations. This very informative book is a great guide in locating the safest places in North America. It takes into account many factors in evaluating why some places are better than others when trying to find the best safe havens closest to your current location.
A very good guide for beginners on how to successfully build food storage. An informative guide on how to successfully store and treat water for safe drinking over the long term.
A comprehensive guide on how to start and maintain a survival garden. This book is a practical guide for surviving economic crashes, internal unrest, and military suppression. The authors have experienced war, tyranny, and extremely dangerous situations, and live to tell about them in this book. They have compiled some great information that offers readers knowledge and insight into the best ways to prepare and survive:. How do you function in an underground economy?
What are the advantages of having multiple sets of identification papers for yourself and your family BEFORE the onset of events happens? The most essential scenarios from all eleven Worst Case Survival Handbooks are collected in this sturdy reference volume: Being prepared is the key to mastering any situation, and this book offers over pages of the most essential survival scenarios from the entire Worst Case Survival Handbook series.
The Survivors Club by Ben Sherwood. Who beats the odds and who surrenders? And how can we become the kind of people who survive and thrive? In this book, you'll learn why America has been detoured from its original path and led down the same road that Germany followed to Nazism. Army Intelligence Officer James Wesley Rawles has written an intensely powerful novel that is more like a survival manual dressed in fiction. This book is a real page-turner because it is so grounded in what could happen. I hope this discussion on being prepared has been of some value to you, no matter how you feel about the potential for problems in our future.
Since our junior mining shares are suffering at the moment, I thought the timing would be good to focus on the topic of preparedness while we await the next run to higher ground When you start to see bank runs and long lines at the banks as we are seeing in multiple countries in Europe right now, this is a sign the endgame is near.
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